Regular people win by not losing

For most of us, those not playing at Federer’s level, not investing like Buffett, not thinking ten moves ahead like Magnus Carlsen, the best strategy isn't brilliance. It's discipline.

In tennis, club-level matches are rarely won by dazzling winners. They're lost through unforced errors: double faults, easy volleys into the net, impatient shots. The best players at that level? They simply keep the ball in play.

In chess, amateur games often collapse because one player blunders a piece, not because the opponent unleashes a grandmaster tactic.

In investing, most portfolios don’t fail because people bet too conservatively, they fail because people panic during downturns, chase fads, or overreact.

The common thread? It's not about genius. It’s about not screwing up.

For regular people, the path to success isn’t about heroic moves. It’s about managing risk, staying in the game, and avoiding unforced errors. 

You don’t need to attack. Just don’t beat yourself. As Charlie Munger used to say: “the best solution to a problem is just to avoid having it”.